| Steve
Jobs' expected rollout of Apple Computer's new laptop may capture
investors attention but two other items will determine the company's
long-term prospects.
There are encouraging signs in both those areas -- with some
important caveats.
The first key issue involves the number and quality of third-party
software designed to work with Apple {AAPL}
products. "There is renewed interest by third-party vendors,"
confirms Tim Bajarin, an industry consultant who heads Creative
Strategies Research International in Campbell, Calif.
Back when Apple was in the trough, companies were reluctant
to make products for the market-share-losing platform. That
situation began to turn around, ironically, when Microsoft {MSFT}
founder Bill Gates announced a broad product and technology
development agreement with Apple at the 1997 Boston MacWorld
gathering.

MSFT 52-week price chart
More recently, several major vendors have joined Microsoft
in supporting Apple with new software.
Canon {CANNY},
a leading Japanese maker of computer printers, has announced
an agreement with Infowave, based in Vancouver, Canada, to collaborate
on the creation of software to link Apple computers to Canon's
popular multifunction (print, fax, copy, and scan) printers.
Meanwhile, companies such as REAL Software, Inc., based in
Austin, Texas, and RecoSoft Corporation, based in Osaka, Japan,
are touting new improved Apple-compatible software that helps
users create state-of-the-art Web sites, a critical growth market.
One problem, however, is emerging: worrisome reports that third-party
vendors are, so far, not making much money in the newly-revived
Apple market.
According to Creative Strategies' Bajarin, only 30 percent
of iMac buyers purchase additional software, a figure that is
far lower than for comparable Windows-based systems.
In essence, Apple's failure in this regard is linked to the
company's success in building an easy-to-use product that appeals
to first-time buyers. Many of those customers, it appears, are
not interested in doing much more than word processing or surfing
the web, which are easy to do with software that comes bundled
with the iMac.
"The question is whether Apple's customer base will entice
more companies to make compatible software," Bajarin says.

AAPL 52-week price chart
For investors, there is an easy Warren Buffet-style way to
measure Apple's progress. All you have to do is take a walk
through your local computer store and count how many aisles
are devoted to Apple-compatible products.
The other key area that will determine Apple's prospects involves
international sales. Unit volume in the worldwide PC market
is expected to grow 21.3 percent this year, according to International
Data Corporation (IDC).
Apple needs to capture a growing share of the international
market to survive in the long-term. Without strong international
sales, third-party vendors will have even less incentive to
produce software for the Apple platform.
Fortunately for Apple, the company is moving up fast in international
markets. Taken together, sales outside the U.S. accounted for
fully 45 percent of Apple's third quarter revenues.
According to figures released by the company, Apple's sales
increased by 42 percent in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa,
33 percent in the Asia/Pacific region (excluding Japan), and
98 percent in Japan during the third quarter of this year, as
compared with last year.

Comparison Chart: AAPL, CANNY, MSFT 52-week performance
chart
However, currency conversion rates make Apple products relatively
more expensive in some parts of Europe, such as England, which
could undermine the company's continued growth if, as expected,
prices for Windows-based PCs continue to fall.
Right now, most of the hoopla surrounding Apple focuses on
the innovative industrial designs, epitomized by the iMac, created
by Steve Jobs and his talented marketing team.
But novel industrial designs are fleeting in nature. It's only
a matter of time before Wintel vendors begin selling similar,
eye-catching Windows-based products.
Tim Bajarin estimates Apple's lead in the industrial design
area will last no more than about eighteen months. "After
that," Bajarin says, "the company still has to convince
me it will be around for the long-term."
And that will be determined not so much by the popularity of
Apple's new laptop, but by how many Apple-compatible software
products you find on the shelves of your local computer store
and how well the company does selling into non-U.S. markets.
While there is room for some cautious optimism, the jury is
still out on those far more critical issues.
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