| Despite
the recent flurry of good press generated by Palo Alto-based Tellme
Networks, Inc., key industry analysts arent convinced the
secretive Palo Alto-based start-up is really onto something.
The press attention is based on the fact that tiny Tellme received
start-up funds from two long-time antagonists in the Great Browser
War: former Netscape CEO Jim Barksdale and Brad Silverberg,
a former senior vice president at Mircosoft.
"The Internet is about to converge with the telecommunications
industry, creating some very large new business opportunities,"
said Barksdale when his investment was announced two weeks ago.
"Were funding Tellme because we believe this extraordinary
team will be able to build a substantial new consumer business
as this convergence progresses."
Although Tellme wont reveal key details about its technology,
the company has confirmed that early next year it plans to roll-out
services that "combine the power of the Internet with the
telephone."
Veteran industry observers, however, say that unless Tellme
has something truly revolutionary to offer, there may not be
much real-world demand for such services.
"It still seems to me the easiest way to look at text
and numerical information is through the eyes and not through
the ears," says Lisa Pierce, an analyst at Giga Information
Group, based in Santa Clara, Calif.
Tellme seems to be banking on two factors: that deployment
of inexpensive broadband Internet access will proceed slower
than now expected; and, more importantly, that people who own
phones but who are not yet online will want to use their phones
to access information from the Internet.
Approximately 40 percent of Americans age 16 or older now have
Internet access, up from 25 percent two years ago, according
to Intelliquest, based in Austin, Texas.
In contrast, 97.8 percent of American households have a telephone,
according to Forrester Research, based in Boston.
A number of lesser-known start-ups are also are pinning their
hopes on achieving a convergence between the Internet and the
plain old telephone system, according to Harry Fenik, vice president
of Zona Research, an Internet market research firm based in
Redwood City, Calif.
"The reality, though, is the number of people who need
that information will be some very small fraction of the people
who arent online yet," Fenik says. "Thats
one thing none of their business plans ever mention." Fenik
notes that he has not, however, seen Tellmes closely-guarded
business plan.
Amanda McCarthy, an analyst at Forrester, says Tellmes
success may be determined by the marketing partners it attracts.
"It really depends on what content streams they deliver,"
she says. "If its just another way to get stock quotes
or sports scores, its probably not that interesting."
McCarthy notes there are already a variety of non-PC dependent
ways people can obtain information from the Internet, including
cell phones, pagers, and personal digital assistants.
According to a recent study conducted by Intelliquest, for
example, approximately 19.5 million people in the U.S. are expected
to use PCs to access the Internet for the first time over the
next twelve months. An additional 15 million Americans, however,
are expected to use the Internet for the first time over the
same period without a PC.
"There will be lots of appliances connected to the Internet,"
says Zonas Fenik. "The telephone itself is going
to be replaced by an Internet device. So there is not much reason
to believe the market [for telephone-based Internet services]
will be the size or shape they say it is."
Skepticism about Tellme.coms plans reflects the more
seasoned outlook now taking hold regarding young Internet companies.
"The Internets age of gee-whiz, because we can do
something we should do something, is kind of disappearing,"
says Amanda McCarthy of Forrester Research. "Now, the question
is: what utility does it have?"
In a kind of pre-IPO Kabuki dance, releasing the identities
of Tellme.coms early investors generated buzz and whetted
Wall Streets appetite for the company.
Now that the initial buzz is subsiding, Tellme must address
some significant questions about how it plans to surmount the
obstacles involved in turning the telephone into an Internet
access tool.
"They must be thinking about these things," says
Giga Information Group analyst Lisa Pierce. "But until
I hear more, I probably wouldnt bet my money on them.
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