Product-design software maker Agile Software Corp.s {AGIL}
has high hopes it can use its early success to become the dominant
player in an emerging new market.
"Agile has at least a couple of years lead," over
would-be competitors, says Bruce Richardson, vice president
of research strategy at AMR Research Inc., a software market-research
firm based in Boston. "The company created a new product
category. Right now, they have 100 percent mind share."
San Jose, Calif.-based Agile produces specialized software
that taps the power of the Internet to help companies better
manage product design and pre-production processes, as well
as coordinate design changes with outside suppliers.
The companys stock went public on Aug. 20 at $21 a share,
higher than the original price range of $15 to $17. Recently,
the stock has been changing hands at more than twice its original
offering price.

AGIL stock performance chart since its IPO
Many companies sell enterprise resource planning software that
coordinates production processes within a single company. Agiles
products, on the other hand, are designed to help companies
achieve a similar level of real-time coordination with outside
suppliers.
"Theyve taken the next step," says George Gilbert,
an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. based in San
Francisco. "Theyre focused on product information,
not taking or processing an order."
Two key trends are contributing to Agiles growth: outsourcing
and shorter product lifecycles.
Last year, 15 percent of all manufacturing in the United States
was outsourced, a figure thats projected to grow to 40
percent next year, according to a recent study by Hambrecht
& Quist, based in San Francisco.
In recent weeks, for example, telecommunications supplier Ericsson
{ERICY}
sold its Visby, Sweden, manufacturing facility to Flextronics
International Ltd. {FLEX},
a custom manufacturer with headquarters in San Jose, Calif.
Likewise, IBM {IBM}
announced it would outsource manufacturing for its Netfinity
servers to Milpitas, Calif.-based Solectron Corp. {SLR}.
Both Flextronics and Solectron are Agile Software customers.
Other Agile customers include Texas Instruments Inc. {TXN},
Lucent Technologies Inc. {LU},
and GE Marquette Medical Systems. "The move toward outsourcing
is critical for us," says Bryan D. Stolle, Agiles
founder and CEO.
Check
out Agile Software's Web site
Stolle says outsourcing requires close coordination of growing
supplier networks. "A lot of companies dont really
make anything anymore, they are design and marketing operations,"
he says.
While most large companies already have internal computer systems
that tie their different divisions together, Agile software
helps eliminate divisions between companies so the impact of
changes to designs or parts can be instantly assessed.
In essence, Agile is creating a kind of nervous system for
companies involved in a design process.
"One of their real strengths is the way theyre creating
a supplier daisy-chain," Richardson says. "Once they
get one company, say Solectron, they move down the chain to
sign up Solectrons suppliers, and then the companies who
supply those companies, and so on."
Solectron Shines in Outsourcing Sector
by Hal Plotkin
Ever-shortening product lifecycles are also helping spur demand
for Agiles real-time design-coordination software, Richardson
says. "Were in the very early stages of what will
be a huge market. Product lifecycles will only get shorter."
Customers using Agiles software, for example, change
designs on the fly whenever less-expensive parts become available,
or for any other reason. All companies involved are then immediately
notified of the change to make sure no problems are inadvertently
created.
"Our average customer makes 600 changes per week,"
Stolle says. Although some of those changes can be quite minor,
such as a change to the documentation for a product, "Its
important that everyone have the most current information,"
he adds.
Right now, Agile is facing very little in the way of direct
competition, Richardson says. Motiva Software Corp., a privately
held firm based in San Diego, is targeting some of the same
customers in partnership with San Rafael, Calif.-based Autodesk
Inc. {ADSK}.
Meanwhile, the traditional ERP vendors, who might have been
Agiles most formidable competition, were slow to recognize
the need to coordinate pre-production design processes. Several
of the leading ERP suppliers, including Oracle Corp. {ORCL},
SAP AG {SAP},
and J.D. Edwards & Co. {JDEC},
are now working in partnership with Agile to link the companys
pre-production software to their own ERP products.
"We expect more competition." Stolle says. "Our
visibility is too high, and this is too interesting an opportunity
for others not to want to get in. But weve put over $50
million in the last five years into what weve got, and
it will be hard for anyone to compete with that kind of hands-on
experience."
At least some investors are betting that Agiles early
success will open up additional opportunities for the company.
"Brian Stolle is exploiting all the chains," Richardson
says. "ERP vendors might become alarmed when they realize
how deeply he is getting into the DNA of their key industries."
Eric Upin, an analyst at BancBoston Robertson Stephens, based
in San Francisco, says he thinks Agile probably deserves its
already high valuation.
"Technology companies are often richly valued," he
says. "But when you look at this companys management
team, customers, and market, Id say emphatically yes,
its worth its valuation. This is a very strong company
going forward."
Agile Software posted a loss of $4.1 million on revenue of
$5.9 million for the fiscal first quarter ended July 31, compared
with a loss of $2.6 million on revenue of $3.2 million for the
same period last year.
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