| Figuring
out which Internet companies have the best chance to succeed over
the long run takes logic, industry knowledge, and a willingness
to ask unfamiliar questions.
"The industry is beginning to develop a new set of metrics,"
that help investors determine the relative merits of different
online companies, says Laird Foshay, founder of Menlo Park,
Calif.-based Investools, an online company that sells stock-picking
advice. Investools was recently acquired by Houston-based Telescan
Inc. {TSCN}
for $48.6 million in stock. General Electric Co. {GE}, the parent
company of CNBC.com, has a significant minority interest in
Telescan.
Foshay says that when it comes to picking Internet stocks,
the most seasoned investors base their decisions on business
fundamentals rather than on hype or potentially misleading statistics,
such as raw page-view counts. Those fundamentals include the
cost of acquiring new customers, the lifetime value of a customer,
and an important but relatively new measure of online performance:
revenue per-page view.
"There are a lot of sites that tout high page views,"
Foshay says. "But if you look a little deeper, you find
out they arent taking in much in the way of revenue. I
worry about companies like that."
Few online companies routinely make revenue-per-page-view statistics
available. Nonetheless, investors can compare the performance
of different Internet companies by doing the math themselves,
for example, by dividing a companys quarterly revenue
by the number of page views it claims for that quarter.
"Comparing the numbers helps you understand if a company
is capitalizing on their opportunity," Foshay says.
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What
to Look for in an Internet Stock
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- Base your decisions on business fundamentals,
not hype
- Be wary of raw-page-view statistics
- Is the company's industry fragmented?
- Consumer-oriented Internet companies need:
- expertise in a subject area,
- a large community of users,
- or the ability to compete aggressively on
price
- Is the site clear, intuitive, and easy-to-use?
- Does the site have ample product information?
- How well does the company work with third-party
intermediaries?
- Does the company sell digital or non-digital goods?
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Some large Internet sites take in as little as $200,000 a month,
despite generating 20 million or more monthly page views.
By contrast, some smaller, more narrowly targeted sites can
generate twice that revenue on one-tenth the number of monthly
page views.
"At some point, those economics will take over, common
across all industries," Foshay says. "Profits really
do matter."
There are some other simple things investors can do to separate
hype from reality when picking Internet stocks.
For online companies selling business to business, for example,
one critical factor that will determine success or failure is
whether a company's strategy reflects an understanding of the
balance of power in the industrys supply chain, says Leah
Knight, senior analyst at Dataquest, based in San Jose, Calif.
"Its not enough for someone to come in and say theyre
going to revolutionize an industry by bringing it online,"
she says.
Instead, Knight says investors should consider how fragmented
the industry is. If it is a fragmented industry, "the site
with the largest number of products from the largest number
of suppliers" will usually have an edge.
Similarly, online companies that sell directly to consumers
must have at least one of three things going for them, says
Blaine Mathieu, a Dataquest analyst. In order to prosper, consumer-oriented
Internet companies need either expertise in a subject area,
a large community of users, or the ability to compete aggressively
on price. "If a company doesnt have one of those,
theyre going to be in trouble," he says.
Its often possible to determine whether an online company
has or can develop those assets simply by visiting the companys
Web site. When evaluating an e-commerce companys ability
to build a loyal following, for example, Mathieu says one of
the first things to look for is the online cash register.
"You want to see if they have done what they can to facilitate
buying," Mathieu says. "Is it clear, intuitive, and
easy-to-use? Does the site have ample product information? Are
there clear guarantees for security, shipping, and good return
policies?"
Investors evaluating consumer-oriented Web firms should also
pay close attention to how well those companies work with the
online third-party shopping intermediaries who are expected
to play an increasingly important role in e-commerce. There
are already several such sites, most notably San Francisco-based
Brodia.com, and epinions.com, based in Mountain View, Calif.,
which is slated to begin operations within the next few weeks.
Sites operated by third-party intermediaries help shoppers
quickly and easily find what theyre looking for at the
best prices. If you search for a particular item on those sites
and the company youre considering investing in, which
sells that product, doesnt show up, that could be telling
you something very important, Mathieu says.
"This Christmas, youre going to see [third-party
online intermediaries] become a lot more sophisticated,"
he adds. "Theyre going to drive a lot of sales."
Another factor to consider when evaluating an Internet companys
long-term prospects is whether it sells digital or non-digital
goods. Non-digital content, items that must be shipped to purchasers,
such as books or consumer goods, usually have the lowest profit
margins, Foshay says. On the other hand, digital content, which
can be manufactured and distributed far less expensively, offers
the best chance of high returns.
"Thats been the secret to Microsofts success:
huge gross margins," Foshay says. "In the future,
the online companies that will be most successful are the ones
that can use the Internet to not only sell, but also distribute,
their products."
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