Some analysts say one of next year's most attractive IPOs -- 3Com
Corp.s {COMS}
spinoff of its Palm Computer unit -- makes the parent companys
stock attractive now. Other analysts currently rate the stock
"hold." So who is right?
It depends on who you to talk to. Under the IPO plan, 3Com
shareholders will ultimately own shares in both companies, so
buying into 3Com today will get you a stake in the IPO.
3Coms stock price has moved up a little more than $2.00
a share since the Sept. 13 announcement, to $29.38.
Most analysts agree that the current stock is undervalued.
But the majority remain lukewarm on the stock's long-term prospects
just the same. But analysts who like the stock are very high
on its prospects.
"3Com has a lot going for it right now," says Peter
Lieu, managing director of Needham & Co., based in Boston.
"We rate it a strong buy.'"
"3Com has strong cash flow and a strong balance sheet,"
Lieu adds. "Its the exact opposite of a lot of Internet
companies. Its a stock that is very comforting for people
who want to protect principal."
Last month, 3Com chairman and CEO Eric Benhamou announced plans
to turn the companys Palm Computer division into a separately
traded public company. 3Com expects to complete the initial
public offering of its Palm Computing subsidiary early next
year.
We're not negative on the stock," says Bert Hochfeld,
technology analyst at Josephthal & Co. based in New York.
"It's a good stock. We agree it's undervalued. It's just
not the most exciting thing out there right now."
Hochfeld currently has a "hold" rating on the stock.
"There's no question that the Palm Pilot boosts the stock's
value," Hochfeld says. "But it's still mostly a stock
for value investors."

COMS 52-Week Stock Performance Chart
But Lieu says 3Com will generate about $800 million in cash
over the coming year, giving the company a nice war chest it
can use to extend its leadership in key markets.
Martin Pyykkonen, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Corp. in
San Francisco, isnt quite as enthusiastic. He says he
sees 3Coms top-line growth coming in at between 10 percent
and 12 percent next year.
|
|
Analyst
Opinions |
| Strong Buy |
5 |
| Buy |
10 |
| Hold |
17 |
| Sell |
0 |
| Strong Sell |
0 |
|
Average
Recommendation |
| This Week |
2.3 |
|
| Earnings Per Share |
| Last Quarter |
0.33 |
| Surprise |
0.09 |
| Percent |
37.50% |
| Consensus EPS |
| This Year's |
1.35 |
| Next Year's |
1.53 |
|
|
3COM CORP - COMS
ranks 66 out of 99. It is in the Computer/peripherals
industry.
Analyst Ratings compiled by Zacks
|
"Thats good but not real exciting," he says.
Pyykkonen currently has a "hold" rating on 3Coms
stock based largely, he says, on the companys ability
to manage costs.
Lieu, however, says the stock is much more than just attractive.
He says 3Coms client-access business, which accounts for
about 40 percent of 3Coms sales, is generating gross margins
of about 45 percent, more than double the margins earned by
PC vendor Dell Computer Corp. {DELL}.
"Its a mature business they are de-emphasizing,"
Lieu says. "But its still very profitable."
Combine that with the more-dedicated focus 3Com will achieve
by separating its networking and Palm businesses and, Lieu says,
you have a recipe for success.
"You just wait," Lieu says. "Once the stock
gets back up to $50 a share, everyone else will put it back
on their strong buy lists. Thats always the
way it works."
And Lieu says 3Coms Palm subsidiary has a potential market-capitalization
value of about $7 billion, a figure he arrives at by multiplying
Palms estimated 2001 revenue by seven.
"The total market value of 3Com right now is $11 billion,
so an added $7 billion is significant," he says. "You
add that to the companys magnificent cash flow, and it
looks very good."
Anton Wahlman, an analyst at Warburg Dillon Read, based in
New York, doesn't quibble with those figures but says it would
be a mistake to bet too heavily on the Palm. Wahlman says Palm
sales have slowed over the last quarter. In addition, he says
3Com's client-access business, selling analog and DSL modems
and other similar equipment, is being severely hurt by the trend
toward low-cost PCs.
"Many of the PC makers are now going directly to Taiwan
for their modems," Wahlman says. "If you're selling
a $399 PC, a $5 or $10 price disadvantage can be insurmountable."
Wahlman, who has a "hold" rating on 3Com's stock,
says the company's market share for next-generation digital
modems will be smaller than 3Com's more-healthy slice of the
older analog modem market. "They're losing ground in that
business," he says. "So I think it would be smart
to be a little bit careful."
While 3Com's client-access business is declining by an estimated
15 percent to 20 percent year over year in recent quarters,
the company's Palm unit generated sales of $570 million in fiscal
1999, a figure that grew by more than 100 percent over fiscal
1998. There are currently more than 5 million Palm handheld
computers in circulation, giving 3Com 73 percent of the overall
U.S. market for personal digital assistants, according to International
Data Corp.
3Com recently rolled out the new Palm VII, a handheld device
priced below $500. Unlike earlier Palm products, the Palm VII
lets customers retrieve and send personal and corporate e-mail.
Previously, Palm owners had to open a Palm.net account to access
e-mail features. Customers can also use the new Palm to bid
on auctions at eBay.com, trade stocks through Fidelity Investments,
and buy CDs and books from Amazon.com, among other things. The
device comes equipped with a wireless modem that connects through
the BellSouth cellular network.
3Coms Palm unit, however, is facing a challenge from
Palo Alto, Calif.-based Handspring Inc., which last month debuted
its $149 Visor PDA. Several other low-cost PDAs, running Microsofts
Windows CE software, are also expected to hit store shelves
in the coming months.
"Palm is the leading growth driver for the company,"
Pyykkonen says. "But their decision to not be compatible
with Windows CE is something theyre going to have to wrestle
with in the future."
Lieu brushes off such concerns. He says 3Coms Palm has
a commanding lead that will be difficult for competitors to
overcome.
"Its going to be a long time before any of them
get anywhere close to 3Coms market share," Lieu says.
He adds that newcomers to the market are going to have to do
a lot of software debugging before they can offer a range of
services that compete with 3Coms current suite of Palm
Pilot applications.
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