| Several
trend-spotting analysts say they expect to see a small group of
white-hot caching -- or controlled content distribution -- stocks,
such as Akamai Technologies Inc. {AKAM},
Cacheflow Inc. {CFLO},
Digital Island Inc. {ISLD}
and Inktomi {INKT},
continue to lead the Internet sector for years to come.
"I dont think the stocks have gotten ahead of themselves,"
says James Linnehan, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners, based
in New York. "The opportunity is still in front of these
companies."
CCD stocks have skyrocketed this year. Digital Island, for
example, was an $8 stock just 12 months ago. The stock more
than doubled in October after the firm announced a stock-for-stock
merger with Sandpiper Networks.

Digital Island post-IPO stock performance
Brent Bracelin, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, based
in Seattle, says he sees even more upside potential for Digital
Islands stock.
"We believe Digital Island has room for another double
based on the enormous market opportunity, its leading position
given [its] strategic alliances and its. . .valuation relative
to competing content delivery plays," Bracelin wrote in
a Dec. 13 research note. Digital Island was trading at $139
at the time.
Like Bracelin, many Internet analysts are now quite bullish
on the CCD sector, which only recently came into being.
CCD firms typically began in the data-caching business. Caching
refers to the storage of data on servers in remote locations
which allows data to be served up much faster than would be
the case if it all had to come from one single, centralized
server. Caching remains a core technology of many of the firms
in the exploding CCD sector, such as Akamai and Inktomi.

Akamai post-IPO stock performance |

Inktomi 52-week stock performance |
But caching firms have also expanded their product lines to
provide clients with an ever-growing menu of services, such
as user profiling and Internet performance measurement. Hence
the more-expansive CCD sector description.
"Were talking about the future of how data is distributed
on the Internet," says Joel Yaffe, an analyst at the Giga
Information Group in Boston.
Yaffe recently issued a research paper that forecasts sales
of several billion dollars in the CCD sector over the next three
to five years.
"These services will fuel the broadband adoption rate
for U.S. Internet users and will become a key enabling service,
resulting in a shift from the Internet as a business tool to
an interactive entertainment medium," Yaffe wrote.
Whats more, Yaffe says CCD companies will play a major
role in helping the Internet more effectively reach currently
undeserved regions, such as India, Latin America, the Middle
East and the Pacific Rim, which are distant from the major U.S.
and European hubs where large amounts of Internet data are generated.
"Bringing the Internet to the developing world is not
going to be done by antiquated telecommunications services,"
Linnehan agrees. "Its going to be done by companies
like Digital Island and Inktomi. Theyre capturing markets
that are still in their infancy."
Generally speaking, CCD firms fall into one of two categories:
service providers, such as Akamai and Digital Island, and companies
that focus more on selling data caching hardware and software,
ranging from relative newcomers such as Cacheflow and Inktomi
to more-established players such as Cisco Systems Inc. {CSCO}
and Novell Inc. {NOVL}.
Both camps have their fans.
"The hardware/software guys like Cisco and Novell are
well positioned to take advantage of the market no matter what
happens," Yaffe says. "Theyre selling picks
and shovels to the miners."
"I think there are advantages to the service model,"
Linnehan counters. "Theres a better return-on-investment,
recurring revenues, and more opportunities on the service side."
Service providers, he notes, generate revenue by hosting client
data on servers located around the world.
Bracelin says investors should also consider InterNAP Network
Services Corp. {INAP},
another stock he says should run with the CCD market leaders
because of its similar business model.
Internap brokers bandwidth from multiple providers to ensure
the fastest possible data transmissions. The services firm counts
many of the Webs most bandwidth-intensive users, such
as Amazon.com Inc. {AMZN},
eBay Inc. {EBAY}
and Web TV, among its customers.

InterNAP Network Services post-IPO stock performance
Bracelin put a "buy" rating on the stock earlier
this month after it had already climbed 570 percent over its
September IPO price.
"We predict Internap will grow at a 108 percent compound
annual growth rate over the next six years," Bracelin wrote.
"We consider Internap an emerging virtual carrier poised
for explosive growth."
No one knows for certain whether high-flying CCD stocks will
maintain their stellar performance. But analysts say that as
long as the Internet boom continues and as long as there is
an increasing need to deliver ever-growing amounts of data to
end users around the world, the stocks of companies addressing
that market have every opportunity to enjoy a good, long run.
"The CCD business has a lot of upside," Yaffe says.
"Its too early to tell who will be the winners and
losers over the long run. But in the meantime, theres
an exploding demand for CCD services and the related hardware
and software."
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