| Major
technology spinoffs, renewed interest in biotechnology start-ups,
action in the insurance sector, and surging venture-capital investments
are expected to combine to make 2000 another banner year for initial
public offerings.
"It could very well be another record year," says
Richard Peterson, an IPO analyst with Securities Data, based
in New York.
Peterson says IPOs could generate a whopping $100 billion next
year, up from the record $69 billion raised by companies that
went public in 1999.
This year's biggest IPO is expected to come from AT&T Corp.
{T},
which plans to offer a new tracking stock for the firm's wireless
unit. That IPO could be the single largest in history, bringing
in as much as $10 billion.
"The one thing everyone agrees on is that this is going
to be a fast-growing market," says Brian Hammond, senior
editor at Telecommunications Reports, a trade journal
based in New York.
3Com Corp.'s {COMS}
upcoming spinoff of its Palm Pilot unit is expected to generate
a more down-to-earth but still respectable $100 million, according
to filings with the Security and Exchange Commission. The stock
could do particularly well in the post-IPO market, however,
if some of the more than five million Palm Pilot owners start
bidding the issue up.
"It's going to be a long time before any [competitors]
get anywhere close to 3Com's market share," says Peter
Lieu, managing director of Needham & Co., based in Boston.
Palm currently has a 73 percent share of the overall U.S. market
for personal digital assistants.
Biotech IPOs are also expected to move back into the spotlight
next year on the heels of the recent strong performance of the
Caliper Technologies Corp. {CALP}
and Maxygen Inc. {MAXY}
IPOs, which are up 200 percent and 300 percent, respectively,
since both firms went public in recent weeks.

CALP post-IPO stock performance |

MAXY post-IPO stock performance |
According to BioCentury, a biotech industry newsletter
based in San Carlos, Calif., at least 23 other private biotech
firms are angling to go public in the not-too-distant future.
The most notable include Aclara Biosciences and IntraBiotics
Pharmaceuticals Inc., both based in Mountain View, Calif.; New
York-based Antigenics LLC; Diversa Inc. and Sequenon Inc., both
based in San Diego; and Orchid Biocomputer Inc. based in Princeton,
N.J.
"The industry's gathering momentum," says Jim McCamant,
publisher of the Medical Technology Stock Letter, based
in Berkeley, Calif. "We're going to see a lot more action
next year. The indexes are up over 100 percent over where they
were a year ago, and people are moving money into the group
again."
The somewhat less-glamorous but still-lucrative insurance market
is also expected to bring buckets of fresh cash to the trading
floors in 2000. Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., for example,
plans to raise $6.5 billion in an IPO while John Hancock Financial
Services Inc.'s IPO is slated to raise $2.04 billion sometime
early next year.
But perhaps the best indicator of next year's IPO prospects
can be found in the record-breaking capital flows from venture-capital
funds to pre-IPO firms.
Venture investments reached a record $12.98 billion, dispersed
to 1,190 companies, during the third quarter of 1999, according
to Venture Economics, a trade journal based in Newark,
N.J., and the Washington-based National Venture Capital Association.
That performance, over just one quarter, was more than the
entire amount placed by venture firms in all of 1996 and nearly
as much as was invested in pre-IPO firms in all of 1997.
Internet firms continued to be the leading recipients of venture
investments during the third quarter of 1999, netting about
$5 billion. Computer-software and services firms placed second,
with $1.98 billion, and communications firms third, with $1.91
billion.
"What we're seeing is a powerful entrepreneurial surge
fueled by an apparent decision on the part of capital markets
that this is an area of great merit," says Steven Lazarus,
of Arch Venture Partners, based in New York, in a statement
that accompanied the recent release of the NVCA figures. "There
are many factors which are converging to create this strong
investment environment, including high levels of recent fund-raising,
an active market for initial public offerings, a strong Internet
sector and an increasing number of entrepreneurs with promising
ideas."
All this leads to the inescapable conclusion that, as remarkable
as the IPO market has been over the past year, it's quite possible
we ain't seen nothing yet.
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