| Who |
Timothy Ghriskey, portfolio
manager of the $105 million Dreyfus Aggressive Value {DAGVX}
fund. |

Coca-Cola Enterprises
52-week stock performance
|
| Stock
Pick |
Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. {CCE} |
| Recent
Price |
$20.36 |
| Appreciation
Potential |
$30 within 18 months. |
| Reason
to Buy |
Coke's additional $300 to
$500 million marketing push expected to boost stock of leading
Coke bottler. |
It's not often that a stock gets a lift
because another company increases its marketing budget. That's
what should happen to Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.'s stock over
the next 12 to 18 months, says Timothy Ghriskey, portfolio manager
of the $105 million Dreyfus Aggressive Value {DAGVX}
fund.
Ghriskey says Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.'s
stock should appreciate 50 percent or more as the company benefits
from a re-invigorated marketing effort by the owner of its main
product, Coke.
Coca-Cola Enterprises is the world's
largest bottler of liquid nonalcoholic drinks. The company operates
in 46 of the 50 U.S. states, all 10 provinces in Canada, and
parts of Europe, including Belgium, France, Great Britain, Luxembourg,
Monaco, and the Netherlands. The stock trades separately from
the stock of The Coca-Cola Company {KO},
which owns the lucrative Coke trademark in addition to a variety
of other business divisions.
"Coca-Cola Enterprises has got a
big new push coming from Coca-Cola on the marketing side, and
all of that new spending by Coke benefits Coca-Cola Enterprises
without them having to pay anything," says Ghriskey.
In February, the Coca-Cola Company announced
plans to implement a one-time only $300 to $500 million-dollar
increase in its marketing budget for the balance of the current
calendar year, although the company did not reveal the precise
amount that will be spent on marketing in 2001.
In making the announcement, Coca-Cola
Company president Jack Stahl said increased spending on marketing
is the single best investment his company can now make.
"We are confident that these one-time
investments will have significantly greater long-term returns
than many of the recent acquisition opportunities that we have
evaluated," Stahl said when he announced the fortified
marketing plan.
"What I'm counting on is that the
new marketing push will not be the same old thing," says
Ghriskey. "The company has clearly made some mistakes recently
with its ads, but I think they now understand what they need
to do to attract the primary consumption demographics they're
after."
Ghriskey ticks off a few other factors
that he says should work to the benefit of Coca-Cola Enterprises'
shareholders in the months ahead.
He says raw material costs in the bottling
industry are under control and pose no threat to profitability,
and that Coca-Cola Enterprises faces negligible capital spending
needs over the foreseeable future.
"We're also seeing a return in Coke
volumes to more normalized levels," he says.
In February, the Coca-Cola Company reaffirmed
its guidance for the coming year, which calls for a 6 to 7 percent
increase in case volumes as compared with the previous year.
"They can't do that without the
bottles," says Ghriskey, who adds that Coca-Cola Enterprises's
stock also looks like a safe, or at least safer, haven in a
market where investors are increasingly running for cover.
On January 23, Coca-Cola Enterprises
posted earnings of 50 cents per share for fiscal 2000, a number
that analysts now expect will grow to 59 cents a share in 2001,
according to First Call Corp.
"The year 2000 was a challenging
period...with slower than expected volume growth in North America
and difficult market conditions in Great Britain," said
Summerfield Johnston, Jr., Coca-Cola Enterprises chairman and
chief executive officer, when the company's year-end figures
were announced.
But Johnston supports Ghriskey's assertion
that 2001 should be a better year.
"In North America, we've begun to
see a return to volume growth on a foundation of improved pricing
and profitability," Johnston said, while "in Great
Britain, strong fourth quarter volume growth demonstrates the
strength of our brands...and the significant opportunities we
have to build per capita consumption. Our other European territories
- particularly France - continue to perform very well, achieving
both volume growth and improved pricing."
"The [bottling sector] is a defensive
sector," Ghriskey says. "People tend not to cut back
soft drink consumption in a weak economy, so when the numbers
start coming in I think the stock will look a lot better to
investors over the next year."
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